The recent announcement that Major League Baseball plans to move the date of the MLB Draft from June to July comes off as a surprise, especially given the amount of tinkering the draft has gone under in the past ten years. The draft has changed a lot since 2004, and it has become more and more obvious that Major League Baseball wants to make it even more interesting so that it can hold up to its other Big Three counterparts. Given the amount of development time players take, not many fans are interested in the future of the team. Whereas a bona fide college basketball or football star has the opportunity to immediately play for the team that drafted them, Major League baseball’s minor league system is a drawn out process, and very few players completely bypass this system. The last one who did was Arizona State pitcher Mike Leake, who immediately pitched for the Cincinnati Reds in 2010 after being selected in the 2009 draft. Carlos Rodon, arguably the best prospect in the 2014 draft, may have a quick trek to the majors that may end in 2015, but he still is going through the system.
The sweeping changes that have constantly reshaped the draft started in 2006, and it seems that every year, something changes because an established precedent is constantly broken, and someone finally decides to examine it.
1. The draft was originally more of a metaphysical event. Done entirely by conference call, with minor awareness by the fans who would watch the picks scroll by on the draft tracker on Major League Baseball’s website, people knew about it, but didn’t have the chance to actually see it. In 2007, the draft was made into an actual televised event, covered on ESPN2. The first televised draft hit the ground running as well, with analysts, invited prospects (Ross Detwiler, Phillippe Aumont and Josh Vitters) and Commissioner Selig announcing the picks. Since then, the draft has moved to MLB Network in Studio 42, and there are many invited guests, mostly high schoolers, although there have been two collegians and one JuCo player in attendance. ESPN even has had some degree of coverage of the draft on Sportscenter the day after.
2. Unsigned first round draft picks used to be a rare occurrence. In the new millennium, prior to 2008, there were three major instances of it happening: John Mayberry in 2002, Wade Townsend in 2004, and Luke Hochevar in 2005. While compensation for lost unsigned first rounders wasn’t an entirely new occurrence, it wasn’t until 2009 when teams were given a first round pick for not signing their pick from the previous season. Since the ruling officially came into effect after the 2007 draft, a grand total of 14 picks, including Brady Aiken, the top pick in the 2014 draft, have elected not to sign.
3. Originally, teams were allowed to spend whatever they wanted in order to get their prospects, and rightfully so, given that Scott Boras was the agent for a lot of these players. Signing bonuses went through the roof, in fact, Stephen Strasburg made a lot of money off his original deal. In addition, there were instances of the “Major League” contracts. These deals allowed players to immediately be kept on the 40 man roster, and allowed teams to keep them from being tabbed for the Rule 5 Draft. Since then, Major League Baseball has put the kibosh on free spending, implementing a hard slotting system and eliminating the Major League contracts. Granted, there are teams that still go over slot for picks, but more often than not, they compensate by drafting no-leverage college seniors earlier so that their hotshot prospects can be signed for late first round money. See the Kyler Murray article from earlier this month for reference.
4. What was originally a 50 round draft has since been trimmed to a 40 round draft. Many of these later picks were “favor picks”, picks mainly used to draft marginally talented players who have family ties to the organization, or friends of other players. Mike Piazza was an early example of this, and the same went for Mike Flacco, the brother of Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, who was drafted by the Orioles. Of course, there are some heartwarming stories about paralyzed players being drafted so they can live out their dream somewhat. Three notable examples are Cody Hahn of the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2011 and Johnathan Taylor and Buddy Lamothe of the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros in 2010. Incidentally, Taylor was the college teammate of Texas’ first round pick that year, Zach Cone. Because there’s plenty of room for error, not to mention the extensiveness of the minor league system, it’s absolutely fine that teams do this. Of course, there’s the occasional novelty pick, like Johnny Manziel in 2014. Major League Baseball elected to trim the amount of selections in the hopes of giving more undrafted free agents a shot in the minor leagues. While it hasn’t curtailed the “favor picks”, it certainly has made it less of a chore to watch or listen to the last picks on the draft tracker.
5. Finally, the signing deadline. What was originally a flexible deadline, (College players had until the following draft to sign, while high schoolers who didn’t sign by the end of the summer went to college) eventually became more hardline (All players with the exception of college seniors had to sign by July 31st) to the point of giving players even less time. (Currently, all players have until July 15th to sign). Assuming the new proposal comes into effect for the 2015 draft, players and teams will have a two week period to negotiate, as the draft will be on July 1st, and the deadline will stay at July 15th.
The idea here is that the new draft date, set after the College World Series, will allow players to be ready to hit the negotiating table immediately. Not only that, but it may allow more collegians to attend the draft itself. While the draft does have an admittedly impressive list of attendees, including Mike Trout and Andrew Heaney, the problem is that many of these attendees are high school kids. The only collegians who could attend the draft are those whose teams have either not made the NCAA tournament, or who were bounced early. Fresno State and Oklahoma State, while both impressive schools on the diamond, did not have good years in 2013 and 2012, allowing Heaney and Aaron Judge to attend. This makes it seem like attending the draft is like a consolation prize for a bad year, setting a poor precedent. The idea of moving the draft so that more college players on good teams can make it to Secaucus is smart. It allows these kids to be seen wearing their future team’s jersey. We all enjoy seeing college football stars putting on draft caps, walking on stage, shaking hands with Roger Goodell and holding up the team jersey for the NFL draft, and ever since Trout donned his first Angels jersey in 2009 in Studio 42, it’s been cool for the MLB draft fans to get what NFL draft fans already have. Imagine if Stephen Strasburg had attended the draft in 2009, heard his name called, and walked to the stage with a new Nationals cap and jersey. How about Bryce Harper, Gerrit Cole, Mark Appel and Carlos Rodon?
While the move does seem to have its benefits, especially on the aesthetic side of things, there are, of course, some logistical problems. Mike Axisa points them out in this CBS Sports article. While the draft would be increasingly beneficial for NCAA players and coaches, Major League Baseball, and Minor League Baseball, by extension, would be adversely affected. For one, having to sign 40 players within a two week period is a major crunch of energy in a limited amount of time. Not every late round pick is going to be a low ceiling, low floor candidate. Top high school players selected late will almost certainly bolt for college, and contract framework and negotiation with higher picks will have to be put on an accelerated pace. Considering the agents who work for these players and their bonus demands, it would seem as if there would be plenty of eleventh hour deals or abandonment of contract talks, allowing players to bolt and teams to have extra picks, leading to another cycle of this problem by next July. Another problem pointed out is how the lower level teams will be affected, Short season teams begin their seasons in June, and end in August, with playoffs in September. Having to wait a month, potentially a month and a half, will most likely force these teams to move back their season to July, or extend it, defeating the purpose of short season ball. Even collegiate summer ball teams would be affected, as certain junior or JuCo players who are drafted may abruptly leave in the middle of the season, adversely affecting said team in the long run. Whereas under the current structure, a player can leave as early as the day before the season starts, forcing a manager to recruit a replacement but with more time, under this structure, the options are thinner, a manager has about less than three weeks to get a replacement for said player or just leave the roster spot empty.
The new proposal does have its advantages and disadvantages, but as of right now, nothing is concrete. While the idea in theory is good, it will be much better to see how it goes in execution. At best, it allows for more exposure of the draft and current prospects, while at worst, it’s a logistical nightmare. One hopes that the MLB Draft however continues to build up the exposure that it has so desperately craved from its big four counterparts.
To make this easier for the draft databases and readers of this site, MinorLeagueMadhouse will be putting a mini-post together which lists the results of the 2015 mock draft. Here it is.
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: Brendan Rodgers, SS, Lake Mary HS, Florida
2. Houston Astros: Nathan Kirby, LHP, Virginia
3. Colorado Rockies: Daz Cameron, OF, Eagles Landing Christian Academy, Georgia
4. Texas Rangers: Brady Aiken, LHP, No School
5. Houston Astros: Kolby Allard, LHP, San Clemente HS, California
6. Minnesota Twins: Michael Matuella, RHP, Duke
7. Boston Red Sox, Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt
8. Chicago White Sox: Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt
9. Chicago Cubs: Justin Hooper, LHP, De La Salle HS, California
10. Philadelphia Phillies: Alex Bregman, SS, LSU
11. Cincinnati Reds: Ian Happ, 2B/OF, Cincinnati
12. Miami Marlins: Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville
13. San Diego Padres: Kyler Murray, SS, Allen HS, Texas
14. Tampa Bay Rays: Ashe Russell, RHP, Cathedral HS, Indiana
15. Atlanta Braves: DJ Stewart, OF, Florida State
16. Milwaukee Brewers: Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt
17. New York Yankees: Phil Bickford, RHP, College of Southern Nevada
18. Cleveland Indians: Cody Ponce, RHP, Cal Poly Pomona
19. San Francisco Giants: David Thompson, 3B, Miami
20. Pittsburgh Pirates: Nick Plummer, OF, Brother Rice HS, Michigan
21. Oakland Athletics: Gio Brusa, OF, Pacific
22. Kansas City Royals: Riley Ferrell, RHP, TCU
23. Detroit Tigers: Andrew Suarez, LHP, Miami
24. St. Louis Cardinals: Trent Clark, OF, Richland HS, Texas
25. Los Angeles Dodgers: Demi Orimoloye, OF, St. Matthew’s HS, Ontario, Canada
26. Baltimore Orioles: Richie Martin, SS, Florida
27. Los Angeles Angels: Chris Betts, C, Wilson HS, California
28. Colorado Rockies: Alex Young, LHP, TCU
29. Atlanta Braves: Chris Shaw, 1B, Boston College
30. Toronto Blue Jays: John Aiello, SS/3B, Germantown Academy, Pennsylvania
31. New York Yankees: Garrett Whitley, OF, Niskayuna HS, New York
32. San Francisco Giants: Skye Bolt, OF, North Carolina
33. Pittsburgh Pirates: Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois
34. Kansas City Royals: Kyle Tucker, OF, Gulf Coast HS, Florida
35. Detroit Tigers: Mike Nikorak, RHP, Stroudsburg HS, Pennsylvania
36. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kyle Cody, RHP, Kentucky
37. Baltimore Orioles: Steven Duggar, OF, Clemson
I have decided to add on the last ten picks for the compensatory picks, mainly because I’m on track to break my monthly views record set back in June of 2013. So as a bit of a “thank you” to those of you who have taken the time to read this site, here are the last ten picks of the 2015 mock draft. A side note: Although James Shields has not been signed yet, the mock draft will be done based on the assumption that he will be signed before June.
28. Colorado Rockies
(First Selection: Daz Cameron, OF, Eagles Landing Christian Academy)
You can’t teach pitching to established major league arms, which presents a problem for the Colorado Rockies. In their atmospheric conditions, humidor or no humidor, the best plan for success is to develop starters and teach them how to pitch in Denver. The Rockies seem to have this figured out as they have a trio of impressive future starters coming through the ranks: Jon Gray, who projects to be an ace, Eddie Butler, a solid second arm, and Kyle Freeland, a pitcher who, as a Colorado native, may already have figured out the nuances of pitching in thin air.
Alex Young of TCU would be an interesting fourth arm. While he doesn’t have teammate Riley Ferrell’s fastball, or Brandon Finnegan’s tools, he does have the feel that allows him to be a more versatile pitcher. Like Ferrell, Young has more experience in the bullpen, but he also has worked in the rotation, and could make a seamless transition during his junior year.
Young’s best asset is his pitch movement, his curve and slider are considered his best weapons, and while he’s reticent to use his changeup, proper development of said pitch, which already has some movement, will allow him to become a four pitch starter.
29. Atlanta Braves
(First Selection: DJ Stewart, OF, Florida State)
And you thought the Miami Marlins were the king of fire sales.
The Atlanta Braves have all but openly stated that they are building their future after the 2014 fiasco. Having unloaded much of their hitting corps, including their top power source in Evan Gattis, the Braves may want to look at developing another power bat at another position, And while previous selection DJ Stewart looks like a power hitter, he still needs to learn how to be one.
The selection I have in mind for the Braves here is smaller than Gattis, but certainly could match him in terms of power. Chris Shaw an outfielder for Boston College, is likely going to play first base professionally, as that’s his original position.
Much like Florida’s Richie Martin, Shaw needed a year to figure out how to hit collegiately, and when he finally did, he made an impression. After going deep 6 times last season, Shaw feasted on Cape Cod pitching, adding another 9 blasts, good for the league lead. He’s a left handed power hitter, a valuable commodity to have in a major league lineup, and he makes a conscious effort to correct his swing if he gets aggressive.
Shaw’s not a fast runner, and there’s still a question as to why he was in the outfield during his sophomore season, but these concerns can be covered up by his defensive ability as a first baseman. He’d be a solid part of the Braves future lineup, and someone who could help fans forget Gattis in the future.
30. Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto is often at a disadvantage when it comes to the draft, as their home stadium is less then ideal when it comes to position players. The turf has been known to be a deal breaker for many an athlete, and the Jays have lost many talented players because no one wants to play there. Last season, they lucked out when they nabbed Jeff Hoffman and Max Pentecost, two high level players from college. Hoffman was coming off Tommy John surgery, and Pentecost was coming off an outstanding summer ball and junior season.
The Jays are going to look for a homegrown post-Jose Reyes plan, as two seasons on turf have worn him down, and I estimate he’s good for maybe five more seasons before there are more obvious problems. In this case, the best option is the defensively versatile John Aiello from Germantown Academy.
Aiello is a third baseman primarily, but he’s also capable as a shortstop. His power swing is better utilized when he’s hitting right-handed. Aiello also has the benefit of playing in a northern high school, which allows him to adapt to the cold of Toronto.
If developed as a shortstop properly, Aiello figures to be a 5 hitter in the Jays lineup. Again, the turf issue may cut his career by a couple years, but he may be one of the more underrated prep stars in the draft.
31. New York Yankees
(First Selection: Phil Bickford, RHP, College of Southern Nevada)
The Yankees need to realize that the perfect balance for a winning team is a mix of developed and bought talent, and while they certainly have the bought part down, they do need to develop another few bats for when their high profile acquisitions do finally wear down. Brett Gardner has been a solid start, but there needs to be more.
Sometimes, when it comes to scouting players, especially for teams like the Yankees, there’s some value in looking in their own backyard. Look at the crosstown rival Mets and their developing prospect Steven Matz, or the Toronto Blue Jays and their prospect Dalton Pompey.
It would be a pretty expansive backyard for the Yankees, as Niskayuna High School outfielder Garrett Whitley is almost 3 hours away from Yankee Stadium, but his talent is undeniable, and with the potential to be the first MLB draft pick in the school’s history, he’s really making a solid case for a first round pick.
In a way, Whitley is like Gardner, but with more pop. He’s got value in the 9 or 2 spot of a lineup based on his speed, and he has the defensive capability and the arm that allows him to play centerfield for a major league team. The fact that he’s used to playing in the cold weather that comes with the territory of upstate New York makes him even more attractive.
32. San Francisco Giants
(First Selection: David Thompson, 3B, Miami)
I’d be remiss to not point out the state of the Giants outfield in the future, as both Gregor Blanco and Hunter Pence will be 32 by the end of the 2015 season. While Gary Brown may be part of the future of the Giants outfield, am I supposed to believe that Nori Aoki and Juan Perez will be part of the long term future?
The Giants have many outfield options, both prep and collegiate in the compensatory round, but none offer quite the ceiling like North Carolina’s Skye Bolt. Similar in story to LSU shortstop Alex Bregman, Bolt started his college career quite nicely, showing signs of both power and speed, a rare combination. He slashed ACC pitching, hit 6 home runs, and showed solid patience at the plate.
Bolt regressed slightly this past season, but he still has the potential to be a big time hitter in a major league lineup. The fact that he is a switch hitter will help his value even further. Should he play like he did his freshman year, he could be considered a dark horse top 15 pick.
33. Pittsburgh Pirates
(First Selection: Nick Plummer, OF, Brother Rice High School)
Gerrit Cole is certainly going to be a solid right-handed rotation arm for years to come, and while the rest of the Pirates homegrown arms, Glasnow, Taillon, and Kingham will come in due time, they will also all be right-handed, and there’s a certain predictability about that which makes drafting a left-handed pitcher that much more important.
Tyler Jay, the Illinois southpaw, was originally mocked to the Nationals, but it’s become all but official that Max Scherzer will sign with the team, forcing them to lose their first round pick, which puts Jay back in the draft pool. I put him here for the exact same reasons. You can find them, albeit with strikethrough text, in my previous post.
34. Kansas City Royals
(First Selection: Riley Ferrell, LHP, TCU)
Note: Keep in mind, this pick isn’t official yet, but in all likelihood, will happen. Whether or not the team who signs James Shields is one of the ten worst teams or one of the 19 other teams who stand to lose a draft pick, is yet to be seen.
One of the major proponents of the build, not buy, philosophy, the Royals finally saw their long term plan come to fruition by becoming the 2014 AL champions Thanks to a nucleus of well-developed talent, Kansas City could be a legitimate dark horse threat in the AL for years. And to continue that sustained success, the Royals should look to develop more parts. Losing Nori Aoki and Billy Butler, both a key hitter and a key runner, is going to be difficult, and the Royals would love to have a guy who can at least try to replicate both.
Gulf Coast High School outfielder Kyle Tucker may not be as fast as Aoki, and he may not be as powerful as Butler, but if developed properly, he could be an adequate replacement for both of them in about four or five years. The brother of Preston Tucker, an Astros farmhand, Tucker is one of the more gifted hitters in his class. Although he’s somewhat lanky, he still is an excellent hitter, his swing is one of the best, if more unorthodox, in prep ball. Tucker is defensively capable, but while he is a centerfielder now, expect him to move to right field when he turns pro, as he has an arm more suited for the corner positions.
35. Detroit Tigers
(First Selection: Andrew Suarez, LHP, Miami)
We all knew that Max Scherzer was never going to stay in Detroit, and in all likelihood, neither will David Price. A contingency plan had been in place with Jonathan Crawford and Kevin Ziomek, but Crawford left by way of the Alfredo Simon trade. I know it sounds like I’m talking about replacing Scherzer and Price immediately, but I could not be any further from that sentiment. Rather. it may be time to develop another set of arms for Detroit for the future.
I still think the Tigers should opt for Andrew Suarez, but maybe I should flip him and their hypothetical second selection, Stroudsburg right-hander Mike Nikorak. A classic case of value in a northern prep arm, Nikorak has excellent tools, including a fastball which ranges from low to high 90’s. Well built, Nikorak really brought attention to himself during the showcase season, when scouts gushed on his pure stuff.
Nikorak is an athlete, having played quarterback in high school, but his focus is strictly on baseball now. Development of his secondary pitches is key for him to establish a reputation as a solid starter, and given Detroit’s handling of pitching these days, Nikorak wouldn’t have much to worry about.
36. Los Angeles Dodgers
(First Selection: Demi Orimoloye, OF, St. Matthew’s School)
It can’t be expressed how important a bullpen is in Major League baseball. There’s a difference between letting a starter sit because the manager is confident that a reliever can keep the momentum, and forcing said starter to pitch longer because the particular relief corps is weak. And while the Dodgers have one of the best rotations in baseball, not to mention some decent relief pitching from Paco Rodriguez and Kenley Jansen, it wouldn’t hurt to add another solid arm to that mix.
Like AJ Reed (who ended up being drafted as a hitter), Alex Meyer and James Paxton before him, Kentucky pitcher Kyle Cody is considered a high talent. Cody has the ideal pitcher’s body at 6’7″ and 245 pounds, and he uses it as an emphasizer for his mid 90’s fastball. Cody has the potential to work his fastball into the triple digits, should he be used exclusively out of the bullpen, but there will be teams who want to try him in the back end of a major league rotation. Should the Dodgers take him, I see him more of a former than a latter.
37. Baltimore Orioles
(First Selection: Richie Martin, SS, Florida)
Oriole Park at Camden Yards isn’t exactly the most ideal place for a speedster, but that doesn’t mean that there shouldn’t be one in the Orioles future lineup. While it’s ideal to have a fast slugger in a lineup, sometimes a guy whose primary weapons are his legs may be the perfect solution to adding a degree of dimension to a lineup that’s more power oriented.
Clemson speedster Steven Duggar is considered the fastest collegian, perhaps even the fastest first round prospect this year, depending on if you’re in Kyler Murray’s boat. Duggar’s primary weapon may be speed, but he is fleshed out enough that he can be more than a singles hitter, even if he has shown limited potential on the power front.
Duggar is also a decent defensive player. While situated in a corner spot right now, scouts believe he has the potential to play center field. However, in a park like Camden Yards, perhaps the corner would be the best spot for him.
Duggar would be the perfect future complement to Chris Davis and Adam Jones, and his speed will ad another dimension to the Orioles offense and will allow them to continue their stronghold of the AL East for years .
And that is the final part of the 2015 Mock Draft. Stay tuned, as the next one will likely be released in time for MLB.com’s top 100 prospects and team top 20 prospects lists.
It’s time for the last quartile of the second MinorLeagueMadhouse 2015 MLB Mock Draft. Nothing has changed in the draft order since then, making this mock still somewhat relevant, but again, there’s still work to be done, especially with James Shields and Max Scherzer still on the market. Anyway, here comes the next batch of picks.
22. Kansas City Royals
Everyone loves a good human interest angle, and in sports, when that human interest angle is a good side note for a really good player, then not only are there good results on the field, but the publicity is great as well. The Royals may not need any human interest angles for the foreseeable future, especially after all the stories from their AL championship season, but they could use another injection of youth, especially into their pitching.
After selecting Brandon Finnegan, their quick-to-the-Majors bullpen arm from TCU, they may want to double dip, going after his teammate, Riley Ferrell. And yes, I know I mocked him here last time for precisely the same reason.
Ferrell may have one of the best fastballs in the class, a mid to high 90’s offering with minimal contact. Although he’s been used more out of the bullpen since he started pitching for the Frogs, Ferrell’s fastball and secondary pitch, a slider, have made it impossible for the coaching staff to not move him into the rotation.
Ferrell’s weaknesses as a starter are his strengths as a closer, a developing third pitch, a rough delivery, and a lack of height, and while two of the three can be fixed, unless Ferrell is absolutely dominant as a starter, his ceiling at the major league level is most certainly a closer role in a major league bullpen. For Kansas City, finding the perfect future complement to Greg Holland would further strengthen what is seen as a solid rotation in a tight division.
23. Detroit Tigers
College seniors are a double edged sword when it comes to Major League Baseball. On the one hand, they have the leadership and the skills that allow them to kickstart their careers in an advanced minor league level, but on the other, their clock ticks faster than a college junior. It isn’t often that a college senior is drafted in the first round; the most recent exception was Mark Appel, the number one pick of the Houston Astros back in 2013. While Appel has taken his collective lumps at the minor league level, he should be ready to pitch in the majors as early as late 2015, especially if he continues to rebound from his disastrous 2014 start.
This little detour was made possible thanks to 2014’s elephant in the room, University of Miami pitcher Andrew Suarez. Considered by many to be one of the more majors-ready pitchers, especially as a starter, Suarez is still a potential first round pick, despite his decision to stay another year in school.
Injury history aside, the former Blue Jays and Nationals pick is advanced enough to have confidence in his pitches. a low to mid 90’s fastball, and a good arsenal of secondary pitches that are accentuated by above average command.
Suarez may be somewhat of a reach, but should he have a season that justifies a high selection in the draft, I don’t think any team will care that he’s a senior.
24. St. Louis Cardinals
Back in 2012, when the Cardinals took James Ramsey ahead of such guys as Rickie Shaffer and Victor Roache, I blasted the team for going with a too-safe selection. Two years later, after running through the system faster than Tom Cruise in Mission Impossible III, Ramsey was the centerpiece of the Justin Masterson trade. Lesson learned, never underestimate the Cardinals scouting department.
Ramsey wasn’t the only loss for the Cardinals this past year, Oscar Taveras was tragically killed in a car accident, leaving Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk as the future of the Cardinals outfield, if you don’t include Jason Heyward.
I hate using BPA as the reasoning for a selection, but in a class that’s weak in the Cardinals organizational positions of need, BPA may be the best option, in this case, it’s Richland High School outfielder Trent Clark.
Clark isn’t a power hitter, not that he needs to be, rather, he profiles as a 2 or 6 hitter in a lineup. His best weapons are his contact and his speed. In a way, he reminds me of Brandon Nimmo, a guy who had similar tools in his senior year. The difference between Clark and Nimmo is that Clark has more opportunities for visibility, as he actually plays high school ball.
Clark’s biggest weakness is his arm, and while there is some belief that he can play a big league center field, he might provide more value in left.
Clark’s development may be somewhat protracted, but if he is drafted by the Cardinals, he’ll have the opportunity to be the next high level prospect going through their system.
25. Los Angeles Dodgers
Every sports generation has their defined superstar, and every draft has their fair share of prospects who are supposed to be the next version of said star. This generation will be headlined by such stars as Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, and Clayton Kershaw, and while it may be somewhat early to call someone the “Next Stanton” or the “Next Kershaw,” in some cases, it’s justified. Canada, for instance has what many believe is the “Next Giancarlo Stanton”, and I swear, I’ve heard those words attached to this kid before.
St. Matthew’s (Ontario) High School outfielder Demi Orimoloye may not have a name like an athlete, but he does have the body and the athletic attributes which have made him incredibly attractive to teams. Late to baseball on account of a switch from football, the Nigerian born Orimoloye has a frame similar to Minnesota Twins prospect Miguel Sano. Orimoloye has undeniable power, there’s footage of him hitting a 400 foot home run in a showcase game on Youtube, not to mention solid speed and a strong arm.
Orimoloye may have the tools, but his late start means his abilities are raw. Should he continue to impress the way he did for Team Canada and the showcase circuit, there’s no doubt he will be a highly sought after commodity.
26. Baltimore Orioles
JJ Hardy will go down as one of the more underrated shortstops of all time, and when his career is finished, the Orioles will have him to thank for building a strong defensive foundation on the left side of their infield. Having just signed a five year deal at the age of 32, it wouldn’t surprise me if midway through that contract, he begins to decline. So who would the Orioles groom as Hardy’s successor?
Richie Martin, the University of Florida shortstop, is a late bloomer in the hitting department, but defensively, he’s a college version of Hardy, provided he doesn’t try too hard. Having spent the first two years of his college career learning to regain his hitting stroke, he finally found it in the Cape, playing for Bourne this past summer.
Martin’s high defense and low hitting reminds me of 2012 draft pick Deven Marrero, a similar product at the time, who since then has somewhat regained his hitting stroke as he’s progressed through the Red Sox system.
The key to Martin’s stock rising is how he can handle SEC pitching in his junior year. Should he be able to hit the way he did up in Bourne, then there’s a good possibility he could actually go higher than Baltimore.
27. Washington Nationals In baseball, teams don’t usually draft pitchers high for them to be relievers, unless they have the stuff that justifies a future in the big league bullpen. Granted, there are exceptions, see Gregg Olsen and Nick Burdi as examples. Drafting and developing a future closer is often viewed as unnecessary and a waste of resources, especially in the age of the free agent closer. Then again, if there’s a lively left handed college arm that projects to the bullpen, sometimes the best thing to do is to grab it. Illinois southpaw Tyler Jay may be from nearly uncharted territory, but that hasn’t stopped him from impressing at the collegiate level. During the summer, while pitching for Team USA, Jay managed to allow no runs in almost 17 innings of work.Jay’s best pitch is his fastball, an offering that ranges from low to mid 90’s, with an occasional touch at 97. He also uses a solid curve and is developing a changeup. Jay isn’t an effort pitcher, he uses his athleticism to throw. While Jay does have the ability to pitch in a rotation, he’ll likely succeed more as a relief pitcher.
Update: Washington is expected to sign Max Scherzer, effectively forfeiting this pick and putting Tyler Jay back in the draft pool.
27. Los Angeles Angels
In today’s successful major league system, it’s almost a requirement that teams carry two catchers. One catcher is a defensive presence, usually a bottom of the order bat but an outstanding glove. He’s not going to win a game with an impressive hitting display, but he’ll keep the pitcher in check. The other catcher is a more offensive presence. He may have good defense, but it’s not Gold Glove material. He’s a middle of the order presence, usually there to provide key hits and keep the inning alive.
The Angels have set the groundwork for their future catching corps by acquiring their defensive presence, Carlos Perez from the Astros. Perez will have a good four or five years to work with current catcher Chris Iannetta before this year’s top catcher rises through the ranks.
Wilson High School’s Chris Betts may not be as defensively strong as Perez, and he may be one of the slowest hitters in this year’s class, but he makes up for his deficiencies with a solid power stroke and good arm strength.
Betts may be a slow runner, but he has had the capability to stretch singles into doubles with his power. This was especially evident during the summer.
Betts is also a local product, being half an hour away from Anaheim, so the Angels probably have gotten a good look at him through the past year. It’ll be interesting to see if they opt for the local product.
And so there is the first round of the second mock draft. Stay tuned for updates, especially with the last two QO free agents looking to sign.
The first 14 picks have been revealed for MinorLeagueMadhouse’s 2015 MLB Mock Draft; what happens with the next seven?
15. Atlanta Braves
The Braves dismantled their outfield, with the exception of BJ Upton, this winter, sending Justin Upton to the Padres and Jason Heyward to the Cardinals. When a team decides to take apart an area that could be considered well-established, it’s clear that something has gone wrong. Even the current Braves outfield leaves a lot to be desired, which brings me to whom they should draft.
DJ Stewart is Florida State’s top outfielder, a tank of a man, who, although he saw his stock drop somewhat due to a poor summer, scouts feel that it’s nothing to worry about.
Though he looks the part of a slugger, Stewart needs some fine tuning to actually be a true power hitter, as his stance and swing prevents him from making powerful contact.Although it looks like a reach now, Stewart’s potential, plus the opportunity in his junior year, will definitely springboard him into the top 15, especially in a weak collegiate hitter’s market.
Not only that, but Chipper Jones would potentially endorse the move, especially given the fact that Stewart went to Jones’ prep alma mater.
16. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are probably the last place you’d look these days for a homegrown pitcher, but the emergence of Tyler Thornburg and Jimmy Nelson as potential All-Star starters has allowed the team to stop being averse to drafting high pitching. Heck, they took a chance on Devin Williams and Kodi Medeiros the past two years, maybe it’s time to go for a bigger fish after having slow success with the once thought to be deadly combination of Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley. In this year’s strong collegiate pitching class, the Brewers have plenty of options, even if they’re mainly right-handed starters.
Take Vanderbilt starter Carson Fulmer for instance. The latest in a long line of intriguing Vanderbilt prospects, Fulmer can throw mid 90’s heat with regularity, and has solid secondary and tertiary offerings to give him dimension. What Fulmer needs work on is his control, and his delivery needs to be less… severe.
Although scouts will constantly knock pitchers who lack height, Fulmer’s experience with the Commodores and Team USA, both premier levels of competition, have shown that it is just a number, and given Marcus Stroman’s successful debut this season, Fulmer can only help that opinion change further.
17. New York Yankees
When it comes to the Yankees, especially in the draft, they usually go for players that either have major name recognition or are just plain good. Need proof? In 2008, the team drafted Gerrit Cole, who three years later would become the top pick in the 2011 draft, and another two years later, the ace of the Pittsburgh Pirates staff. In 2011, they drafted Dante Bichette Jr, the former little league star and son of Rockies legend Dante Bichette. In 2012, they drafted Rob Refsnyder, that year’s College World Series Most Outstanding Player, and in 2013, they took Ian Clarkin, who has emerged as one of the best young starters of the 2013 class.
2015 might as well be known as the year of the famous retreads, as both Brady Aiken and Phil Bickford, a former CSU Fullerton Titan, now a member of the College of Southern Nevada, highlight this year’s class. Bickford’s got the fame, as the only member of the 2013 first round draft class not to sign, he’s since dominated the summer league circuit after a meh freshman year at Fullerton. After being voted the Cape’s best prospect, Bickford left Fullerton, deciding that 2016 was too long of a wait for him.
Bickford’s fastball is the main reason why he’s such an appealing project, a mid 90’s offering with plenty of life, he can play the strike zone to his advantage. His slider has also become a solid pitch, and while he does need development on his third, a change, he could become a solid 3 pitch starter. Bickford is definitely more than a name though, and he’ll be worth watching when he plays his final season in college, or to be more precise, junior college.
18. Cleveland Indians
I find it incredibly hard to believe that the Cleveland Indians are that bad at developing starting pitchers, especially out of college. What are they, anti-moneyball? While they have had success with developing pitchers that they have gotten elsewhere, see Corey Kluber as the major example, the fact that the Indians have failed to make a homegrown pitcher blossom since CC Sabathia is baffling. Maybe there is hope that Kyle Crockett will buck the trend, but that’s another story.
There’s a caveat to developing small school pitchers, that the athlete will be on a major learning curve, that they haven’t exactly faced prime competition, but really, if it’s that hard, then why draft small school pitchers in the first place? Of course, pitchers like Division II star and Cal Poly Pomona ace Cody Ponce would really be at a major disadvantage.
Ponce worked his way through two seasons of California Collegiate Athletic Association baseball to make it to the Cape League this past summer, and while there, scouts got a taste of why Ponce is special.
While he is a work in progress, Ponce does offer more pitches than your average hurler, and a strong fastball can be improved even more if Ponce can give it more life. Ponce’s appeal though is his ability to keep the ball in the park, and while Progressive Field is no Yankee Stadium, and the CCAA is no SEC, the ability to keep the ball in the park is going to help Ponce more than hurt him regardless of competition or home stadium.
Ponce will be a work in progress, but if the Indians pitching coaches can somehow turn a Stetson product into a Cy Young winner, it wouldn’t hurt to see what they could do with a Division II star.
19. San Francisco Giants
I am of the belief that a team often needs to stretch out of their comfort zone when it comes to drafting and developing prospects. And while I did catch a little flak for saying the Giants should go for a prep outfielder when there were plenty of pitchers, which is their forté, my belief is that the Giants will need to build in other areas in order to stay competitive.
A third baseman can be replaced by the next man up, in this case, Matt Duffy, but when you lose two big power guys in one offseason, in a weak free agent class, then maybe it’s time to start looking at future homegrowns.
I’ve been pretty high on Miami 1B/3B David Thompson for a while. He’s a prodigy, the first Hurricane hitter to ever make his debut as a cleanup man, and a constant All-America threat. While his sophomore campaign was cut short due to life saving surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, he showed that he hadn’t lost a step when he played in the Cape that summer. Thompson is a student of the game, he was able to reinvent his swing after his injury, and he really adjusted to the learning curve in summer ball.
Health will be an issue, but if Thompson is able to get back to his freshman potential, then he’ll definitely be a late first round pick.
20. Pittsburgh Pirates
Every so often, there’s a team that has such a dearth of talent in their system that you wish they would just not have a first round pick. In this case, it’s the Pirates. The Pirates are strong in this year’s draft’s areas of strength, outfield, and right-handed pitcher, which means that BPA is the best way to go.
The BPA for the Pirates would be Brother Rice High School outfielder Nick Plummer, A lefty, Plummer is valuable because he has advanced power for his age. Plummer also has a good baseball IQ, taking “reach” pitches and aiming for the gaps.
Plummer is no Andrew McCutchen, nor is he Austin Meadows, but he could find value in a lineup as a 6 hitter. It’ll be interesting to see if he can improve his stock in the coming season.
21. Oakland Athletics
I could use the refrain from Kenny Rogers’ The Gambler as my intro for the Oakland A’s, as they pretty much gambled their bright future, that is, Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, etc. for a shot at the World Series which ultimately failed, leading to a Marlins type fire sale for prospects whom I wouldn’t even recognize.
It was clear that when the A’s ditched Moneyball, they really got some major talent, but sometimes, familiarity with an old system may be the best option. In fact, familiarity as a whole is often the best way of going at things during a rebuild.
Meet University of the Pacific outfielder Gio Brusa. In perhaps the weakest hitting class of any draft, Brusa stands out by being a switch hitting slugger. Although he’s only recently reclaimed his hitting ability in summer ball that led to a failed 5 round courtship by Boston in 2012, Brusa’s potential could lead to him hitting 3rd in a major league lineup.
Brusa is a more well-rounded athlete as he has solid running and fielding ability to complement his hitting. He also has the added appeal of being an in state and somewhat local product; University of the Pacific is based in Stockton, home of the Ports, the A’s California League club.
Like any publicity obsessed blogger, I often take a detour through my stats page to see the amount of reads I get in a given day, views from around the world, and links I get to other sites.
My mock drafts have been viewed by team-centric message boards and blogs, my opinions on controversial topics (Like Ben Wetzler-gate) have been analyzed, and recently, college football fans have debated whether or not a prized quarterback recruit will go play there or opt to be a baseball player.
The intent of this article is not a massive ego stroke, believe me, I love the attention, but I’m not a whore for it. No, rather, it’s answering the question, would said athlete, Allen High School shortstop and quarterback Kyler Murray, consider turning pro or enroll at Texas A&M.
Kyler Murray is perhaps one of the greatest beneficiaries of Lamarckism due to both his father’s and uncle’s athletic abilities. Although undersized as a quarterback, he’s made himself into one of the most sought after recruits in college football history, eventually deciding to sign with Texas A&M. In baseball, he’s considered a raw talent with a very high ceiling, a speedster with some hitting ability, and the talent to play shortstop.
Murray’s also a trailblazer in the fact that he played in the Under Armour showcases for both baseball and football, a feat that had never happened before.
Kyler Murray is no doubt one of the more interesting athletic recruits in the nation. Not only that, but he also has major leverage thanks to his uncle Calvin being a sports agent.
But that doesn’t address the question: Where will Kyler go?
To answer this question, one has to look at the past five years, where at least one major dual sport athlete was drafted out of high school.
To begin this half-decade journey, one only needs to look at current Dodgers prospect and former LSU quarterback commit Zach Lee.
Lee was the original Kyler Murray, a top prep multisport athlete considered a tough sign due to a commitment to play for Louisiana State’s baseball and football teams. In his senior year, the McKinney High School product posted NFL-style numbers, and was named the offensive player for the year in his district. It was safe to say that in order for him to sign, a team had to be willing to pay big for him to drop his commitment.
Concerns about his signability dropped him from an early first round pick to a late pick, even in mocks. In fact, some mocks took him out of the first round entirely.
Finally, on draft day, Lee was taken 28th overall by the Dodgers, and signed with a hefty $5.25 Million bonus at the deadline.
Since being drafted, Lee has been moving at a typical pace for a prep player, and expects to be in the majors by this spring. He most recently finished in AAA Albuquerque, going 7-13 with a 5-44 ERA, extreme numbers even by PCL standards.
Bubba Starling and Archie Bradley only increased awareness of the highly valued dual sport prep athlete.
Starling was a star quarterback and outfielder for Gardner-Edgerton High School in Kansas. Considered arguably one of the best athletes in memory, he had both pro baseball scouts and University of Nebraska football and baseball fans salivating. Starling was a no-doubt first rounder in baseball, mainly because he was a five tool player, rare for a high schooler.
Archie Bradley was also a highly touted two sport star from Broken Arrow High School. Considered one of the top prep athletes in Oklahoma history, Bradley was named one of ESPN RISE’s Elite 11 quarterbacks, in a class that included Teddy Bridgewater, Everett Golson, and Cody Kessler, among others. He had a commitment to the University of Oklahoma as a two sport star as well.
Both Starling and Bradley ended up being top ten selections, with Starling going to the Royals fifth overall, and Bradley going to the Diamondbacks seventh overall. Because of their leverage as potential college athletes, they were able to sign big contracts with bigger bonuses, incidentally, this would be the second to last year that bonuses went unregulated. Since then, Bradley had become arguably one of the top pitching prospects with the Diamondbacks, with a major league debut projected at 2015. Starling’s development has been more protracted, having just finished his last season in Wilmington, the high-A affiliate of the Royals.
In 2012, Hueytown High School quarterback/pitcher/outfielder Jameis Winston was a highly touted dual sport athlete. A top talent, Winston supposedly would have been a high draft pick had he not been so intent on playing football at Florida State. The Texas Rangers would draft Winston in the 15th round, and in an attempt to get him to sign on, offered to let him play football at Florida State. Winston refused, and has since become one of the top quarterback prospects in the NFL draft, and a former third team All-American utility baseball player.
Of course, Winston hasn’t ruled out professional baseball either, and has considered a baseball and football career, like Bo Jackson, another former Heisman winner.
Before Kyler Murray, however, Texas A&M fans had to look forward to Kohl Stewart as Johnny Manziel’s replacement. Stewart was a highly rated two sport star who was set to play both sports. There were questions about his health, however, as he was diagnosed with Type-1 diabetes. This however did not deter the Twins, who took him fourth overall. Stewart signed rather quickly, with a signing bonus set at $4.5 million and in his first two seasons, has made it to Low-A Cedar Rapids, a good pace for a prep pitcher
Lee’s Summit High School outfielder Monte Harrison was an immensely talented wide receiver as well and was considered a tough sign from the beginning. His strong commitment to play football and baseball for Nebraska dropped him to the second round. The Milwaukee Brewers drafted him, and he signed quickly, however. Harrison had a so-so year to start his career, but is one of the Brewers’ top prospects already given the strength of the Brewers’ system.
Even if a prep baseball player isn’t a dual sport athlete, teams will often look for ways to ensure a commitment to them as opposed to a college. Look at the Chicago Cubs last season. In order to get highly rated prep pitcher Carson Sands, the Cubs spent their first three picks on high floor college talent, catchers Kyle Schwarber from Indiana and Mark Zagunis from Virginia Tech, and pitcher Jake Stinnett from Maryland. Knowing full well they could sign their first three picks for less money, they treated Sands as their first round pick and signed him for about the amount of a late first rounder.
It’s a tough pill to swallow for football fans, but in the business of sports, money rules everything. Draft a player high and offer him the moon, while still being within the limits of the bonus pool, and a player will sign. It doesn’t matter if the player could be the best quarterback in university history, the player will go where the money is. Unless Kyler Murray explicitly tells teams not to draft him because he wants to play football in college, ensuring that he drops to a day 2 or 3 pick, you can bet there is going to be at least one team willing to pay whatever amount is necessary to get him on their team as the shortstop of the future.
We’ve already mocked the first seven selections of the draft, now it’s time to mock the next seven. If you need reference to the first park the mock, here it is.
Anyway, same parameters apply.
8. Chicago White Sox
There’s no doubt that in three to five years, the White Sox will have arguably one of the best rotations in the American League, if not all of Major League Baseball. So why not make it better? Carlos Rodon and Chris Sale could use more protection.
College World Series hero and Vanderbilt ace Walker Buehler may be one of the more surprising collegiate talents in baseball. While there is a stigma against pitchers that are his height, Buehler clearly has the talent to overcome that adversity and be a solid rotation piece. His pitch arsenal easily compensates for his stature, and he has the ability to pitch in big games, as evidenced by his College World Series, Cape Cod League and Collegiate National Team appearances.
Having a rotation that is made up of three of the best major league-ready arms will help the White Sox win one of the wildest divisions in baseball.
9. Chicago Cubs
Even after making what could possibly be the biggest splash in free agency, the Chicago Cubs will need a contingency plan should Jon Lester show signs of decline in his later contract years. The Cubs have done their due diligence in building up their hitting for the future a lá the Royals, but their young pitching is still a question mark, even with a young gun like Carson Sands, and a potential solid rotation man in Jake Stinnett.
I mocked him here last time, and for good reason: De La Salle High School’s Justin Hooper could potentially be the best prep lefty in the class.
Hooper pumps premium gas, he’s been clocked as high as 97 in showcases, but he is, like most prep pitchers not named Jose Fernandez, a work in progress. As of right now, he profiles as a closer, but work on secondary offerings could move him to the middle to bottom half of a rotation. Hooper is a big guy at 6’7″ and 230 pounds, a trait that many scouts love, and since you can’t teach build, he’ll have that going for him in the future.
If all goes to plan including the Cubs selection, Hooper could be in the majors by late 2019 or early 2020, by which time, Jon Lester will start hitting his decline, allowing him to seamlessly take over for the great ace.
10. Philadelphia Phillies
Who would have thought that Jimmy Rollins wouldn’t finish his career with the Phillies? Don’t raise your hand, I know you’re lying.
Moving aside from that, it’s becoming clearer and clearer that the Rollins/Utley middle infield days are drawing to a close, and depending on how durable the latter is, they could be drawing to a fast(er) close. With JP Crawford, a 2013 HAPS making a steady progression through the ranks, the Phillies will need to pair him with a solid second baseman.
Although he currently plays shortstop, LSU’s Alex Bregman may be the guy who the Phillies want at second. I mocked Bregman here last time for many reasons, he has the bat to be a solid middle of the order run producer, he and 2014 draft pick Aaron Nola were teammates in college and could replicate that chemistry in the pro level, etc. etc. What I like most about Bregman is his name recognition
Bregman’s credentials as the former College Baseball Freshman of the Year allowed him to make himself known early, and despite a down sophomore year, scouts noticed an improvement in his hitting in fall ball with the new baseballs, which are designed with a more “major league” specification. Despite this, Bregman should adapt to pro ball well, and could be the next big major league second baseman.
11. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds may have set their future rotation, but as far as their future offense, it’s clear that the only definitive piece is Billy Hamilton. With guys like Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, and Brandon Phillips getting ready to hit their primes, or for some, past their primes, the time to get the next generation of hitters is now.
The Reds have the benefit of a potential first round pick in their backyard. Cincinnati’s Ian Happ is a solid hitter who could be a second baseman or an outfielder, although scouts see him as a latter instead of a former. Happ projects as a number 2 hitter in any lineup, but in a park like GABP, he could move to the middle of the order.
12. Miami Marlins
The Marlins are gearing up for now, and in doing so, have foregone then. Despite this, they could still end up getting one of the top arms in the draft to cushion the loss of players like Anthony Desclafani and Nate Eovaldi.
Louisville’s arm factory gave us Nick Burdi last season, but this year, they offer a more complete pitcher in Kyle Funkhouser. One of the faster risers in the draft, my belief is that he’ll be a tough sign, allowing him to drop to a willing team.
Funkhouser is more complete than Burdi in the fact that he has more than a fastball to him. Whereas Burdi was a triple digit fastball and a decent slider, Funkhouser has three pitches, developing control and command, and the ideal pitchers body. Funkahouser’s completeness allows him to be more of an ace, and with Tyler Kolek behind him, they could be part of what is already considered a strong future rotation.
13. San Diego Padres
The Padres are big fans of big name shortstops, as evidenced by the draft history, with names like Sean Burroughs and Trea Turner. With Turner going to the Nationals in the Wil Myers deal come June, the Padres are going to have to look for a new shortstop prodigy to fill the Everth Cabrera sized hole…eventually.
Having Allen High School shortstop Kyler Murray get selected in the first round may seem like a giant middle finger to Texas A&M fans, but in my opinion, he could actually develop into a legitimate baseball player. He has the speed to eventually replace Cabrera. and as a prep player, has more dimension to his game than Turner had, with more of a bat, and more of a glove. In some ways, he reminds me of Jose Altuve, if Altuve played shortstop for the Astros.
In a bit of a summary for a future post, I’m just going to say this, as strong of a commitment a player has to a university, all it takes is the right amount of money in order to make him go pro. We saw it with Josh Bell, we saw it with Archie Bradley, and we saw it with Monte Harrison, It doesn’t matter if Murray is promised the A&M quarterback job from day one, if the Padres, or whatever team takes him offers him the right amount of money, you can bet he’ll go pro.
14. Tampa Bay Rays:
The Tampa Bay Rays, at one time, boasted a first round class of 10 players, and so far, none have made the majors, proof that quantity doesn’t mean quality.
One of the champions of building, not buying, the Rays really could use a boost in their homegrown department after losing David Price, and possibly witnessing the potential decline of franchise face Evan Longoria. The question is, where do they go to start that long term rebuild?
Cathedral High School righty Ashe Russell is the next product of the Hoosier State that could make it big. Considered possibly the best prep righty in the class, Russell could go as high as top ten, although he could fall due to signability.
Russell is a complete prep product, relying on his fastball and slider to get batters out. Built like a big leaguer, Russell’s only issue is his delivery. As a product of northern prep baseball though, he could have an advantage over his southern prep counterparts on his trek to the majors.
To satiate the draft heads around baseball (and don’t think I don’t know that there are any, I’m looking at you Reddit, Indians Baseball Insider SoxTalk, DC Prospect Report and You Gotta Like These Kids), I have decided to release a new mock draft once every other month. Admittedly, I also need to update my draft order as three of the picks I already made would not be possible now thanks to Nelson Cruz, Russell Martin and Michael Cuddyer signing with the Mariners, Blue Jays and Mets. respectively.
So let’s go over a few rules. Again, the idea here is that best player available is a joke, so I’m going by either organizational need (as in depth in the top 20 prospects) or general manager tendencies. Of course, if neither of those parameters lead to a clear first round pick, THEN we go to best player available.
So, without further delay, here is the December edition of the 2014 MLB mock draft, part 1. This covers picks 1-7. The mock will be split into four parts, each released one week after another.
1. Arizona Diamondbacks:
Ten years ago, the Arizona Diamondbacks were in the same position they are now, looking for somebody to be the face of their franchise-in-transition. And they actually did that with Justin Upton. Ten years later, and they’re in the same position once again.
The D-Backs have been more inclined to draft pitchers, netting guys like Trevor Bauer (since traded to the Indians), Archie Bradley, Braden Shipley, and Touki Toussaint in three of the past four drafts.
Although the hitting class can be considered arguably the weakest this year, and the Diamondbacks clearly have established options in Chris Owings and Nick Ahmed, perhaps the best bet is for them to go with Lake Mary High School Shortstop Brendan Rodgers.
Rodgers becomes the latest HAPS (Highly Anticipated Prep Shortstop), and possibly the first since Carlos Correa to be drafted first overall. He has an advanced feel for his tools despite his youth. MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo feels that his biggest asset is his bat, because he can generate power without trying too hard. Though versatile, and potentially able to move to other positions, his fielding ability will allow him to stay where he is.
If Rodgers is as advanced as he is, then he too could potentially make it to the Majors quickly, just like Upton did back in 2007, a full two years after being drafted.
2. Houston Astros:
Looking at the big picture, i.e, Houston’s last three drafts, it becomes clearer and clearer that the administration likes to save money in the draft. In 2012, they opted for Carlos Correa over Mark Appel, a move which initially was a head scratcher, since Correa didn’t appear to be a consensus top pick, but seems to have paid off, aside from Correa’s season ending injury last year. In 2013, they took senior Mark Appel, a smart move given the fact that Appel likely would have had little to no leverage after being picked, having exhausted his college eligibility. However, in 2014, the Astros made a mistake, exposing their draft strategy when they drafted Brady Aiken, offered him a mutually agreed-upon bonus, retracted the offer and then intentionally lowballed him and borderline blackmailed him by leaking a physical which revealed a supposed arm issue. Aiken didn’t take the bait, and Houston was left empty handed.
A year later, the Astros are still looking for a franchise left handed pitcher, and possibly also a cost effective one. Enter University of Virginia pitcher Nathan Kirby. Kirby is one of the more interesting prospects, having only become UVA’s latest ace a year ago. Kirby has a solid three pitch offering, a low to mid 90’s fastball with good movement, a great slider, and a potentially devistating changeup. Kirby also has big game experience, having pitched in the 2014 College World Series, and value, having been named the top prospect in the New England Collegiate Baseball league the year before, and winning the league championship with the Keene Swamp Bats.
Kirby will be an interesting and more experienced alternative to Aiken, especially in a weak LHP draft class.
3. Colorado Rockies:
Probably the second biggest question a Rockies fan may have after “Will we ever compete again” is “Who will become the new face of the Rockies Franchise when Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are gone?”
While the Rockies may not find Tulo’s replacement at shortstop in this year’s draft, they could find his replacement as a hitter.
Eagles Landing Christian Academy outfielder Daz Cameron, son of Mike Cameron, the former Major League All-Star, was, at one time, considered the top prospect in this year’s draft, however his stock took a bit of a tumble this past season due to a junior slump.
Cameron’s potential shouldn’t be overlooked for his stats however, considering he has a very high ceiling. Having been selected to the Under Armour All America Classic as both a sophomore and a junior, a rare feat, he has physical tools which, if developed properly, can lead to him becoming a legitimately well-rounded hitter.
Cameron doesn’t have his dad’s leadoff ability, but could potentially make it as a #5 hitter in an average lineup. In the thin air of Colorado, he could be a #3 hitter.
4. Texas Rangers:
The Texas Rangers are in line to be a strong hitting team, with slugger Joey Gallo looking like a potential MVP threat each and every year, but the team lacks a solid rotation. What once was Cliff Lee, CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, and Derek Holland has since been dismantled with only Yu Darvish as an optimism point, and what happens when he, like countless other Japanese phenom hurlers, is figured out?
The Rangers need to build their rotation from the ground up, and the first piece of the puzzle, should he be available, must be Brady Aiken.
Aiken’s potential as a starter is great, and despite the controversial physical that he got from the Astros, there has been no evidence that it affected him, as he had a great senior season. With a mid 90’s fastball, and an advanced feel for his pitches, Aiken is one of the most promising pitching prospects in this draft. His current scouting grades are consistent with those of a college pitcher, and unless he decides to not go to school or the elbow issue in the physical does prove to be a concern, don’t be surprised if he goes in the top 5, or even the top pick in the draft.
5. Houston Astros:
In the draft, there are no restrictions as to how many of a certain position you can draft, especially in the early rounds. And of course, there is that old, and possibly beaten-into-the-ground adage that “You can never have enough pitching” But I digress. The Astros have a strong group of right-handed pitchers coming up in the near future, with Mark Appel, Mike Foltynewicz, and Lance McCullers, but their left handed pitching prospects begin at Josh Hader, who was ranked as the #10 prospect for the Astros at the end of the 2014 season.
The Astros hypothetically took Nathan Kirby second overall to start the draft, could they conceivably double dip and grab another lefty?
San Clemente High School pitcher Kolby Allard has done nothing but shoot up draft boards. In my first mock, I had him as a first round pick, and now, he has the potential to be a top five choice. Allard is smaller than your average pitcher in terms of height, but what he lacks in stature, he makes up for in game experience, winning MVP honors at the Perfect Game Classic and being a part of Team USA.
Allard’s pitching repertoire differs from Brady Aiken in a slightly slower fastball, a curveball, and a purely developmental changeup, but he has top notch command on his pitches. Allard has the durability to stay as a starter as well, and could be a nice mid rotation piece.
6. Minnesota Twins:
The past two drafts showed that the Twins are willing to look at high upside, if somewhat risky prospects, especially after the Levi Michael debacle of 2011. Kohl Stewart was arguably the best prep arm of the 2013 class, despite being diagnosed with Type-1 diabetes and having a very strong commitment to Texas A&M. The year after that, the Twins took Nick Gordon, who was arguably the best two-way player in the draft, leaving them the healthy problem of finding his best position. But enough about the past, who do they take now?
There is a lot of healthy debate as to whether Duke University right handed pitcher Michael Matuella is the top prospect of this year’s class. He’s got one of the best fastballs in college, if not the entire class of 2015, and two excellent secondary offerings. Matuella also is deceptive, his height also masks his pitch deliveries.
So if he’s one of the top prospects in the draft, why is he falling to outside the top 5?
Matuella does have an injury history with his back, which cut short his first year of summer ball, and completely wiped out his second. Though his condition is treatable, if he continues to work in small sample sizes, don’t be surprised if he falls out of the top three, much like Jeff Hoffman did last year after his Tommy John surgery.
Injury history aside, Matuella does profile as an ace, and should he overcome his initial problems, he could be a very good investment in a relatively new market, Duke baseball.
7. Boston Red Sox:
The Red Sox have been great developers of collegiate middle infield talent for years. From Nomar Garciaparra to Dustin Pedroia to Deven Marrero (who has yet to make the big leagues, but is close), the Sox will likely never have to resort to buying a shortstop or a second baseman for a while.
That being said, the Red Sox are eventually going to have to look for a Pedroia replacement, and could find their answer at Vanderbilt. Dansby Swanson may be a shortstop right now, but his natural position is at second base. A contact hitter who led the NCAA in doubles, Swanson could profile as a 2 or 6 hitter in the Red Sox lineup.
Swanson is a proven winner, having been named the College World Series Most Outstanding Player last season.
If Swanson can showcase some versatility, there is a possibility that he could raise his stock even further. Don’t be surprised if mock drafts in the spring have him as a possible top five selection.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a state of perpetual rebuilding. Ever since Super Bowl XXXVII, they’ve been trying to find the right formula to compete in arguably one of the NFL’s most unpredictable divisions. And given the fact that their chance for a resurgence comes at a time when the best quarterback in the division is likely on his way out, and the other franchise quarterback is still waiting for an extension, now would be a good time to find an identity.
As of right now, the Buccaneers are a team that has very little personality. Okay, maybe a few things, like the fact that they have arguably the tallest receiving corps in the NFL, or the fact that they haven’t developed a decent quarterback in the history of ever.
Which brings me to my point. The Buccaneers need to develop a franchise quarterback. I could have told Lovie Smith that Josh McCown was in no way an NFL starter. The fact that he did a decent job filling in for Jay Cutler last season was pretty much a given. Any quarterback can do Cutler’s job, Kyle Orton was somewhat respectable in his lone full season as a Broncos starter the year after Cutler left, Tim Tebow may have been wildly innaccurate, but he had a young receiving corps that made up for his deficiencies. And do we even need to talk about Peyton Manning?
The point here is that McCown is a mistake, and Glennon is no Russell Wilson or Philip Rivers.
Of course, this happens to be the year that two big name quarterbacks are available in the draft. There’s Oregon’s Marcus Mariota, who torched his competition en route to a Heisman trophy, and Jameis Winston, who has also won a Heisman, but has …baggage, to say it lightly.
The general consensus here is that Marcus Mariota is the given first overall pick if there is a quarterback-needy team drafting first overall, and given Tampa Bay’s situation, there’s a good chance that it will happen. Assuming that the current draft order works out the way it does, the top three quarterback needy teams will be the Buccaneers, the Titans (although there is speculation that Zach Mettenberger could be given one more year based on certain factors) and the Jets.
If the Buccaneers want to get out the perpetual rebuild, they will avoid Mariota like it’s their job, and here’s why.
The term “Product of his environment” is often used when describing a free agent who leaves an optimal situation for a more difficult one. Eric Decker, the former Denver Broncos wide receiver was considered an example this offseason when he left Peyton Manning in Denver for the muddy quarterback situation in New York. In baseball, power hitters who leave Colorado are often labeled as products of their environment because of the thin air that allows balls to travel further without wind resistance. But I digress.
Mariota is a product of his environment. The University of Oregon is a place where quarterbacks thrive. The offense is practically tailored for them to shred possibly the weakest defensive power conference in football. To provide proof, only one team (Stanford) was ranked in the top 50 this year out of all defenses in college football. The second highest team was ranked 66th, and that was USC. Incidentally, in the three seasons Mariota played for Oregon, the only team that consistently gave him trouble was Stanford. If that isn’t a clue that Mariota’s stats were inflated because he played defensive cupcakes, then I don’t know what is.
Mariota is also another example of a dual threat quarterback, a quarterback who can run and throw. Examples of dual threat quarterbacks in the NFL include Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III, Geno Smith, and Johnny Manziel, I’ll let the reader connect the dots on the implications here.
Although Mariota is highly accurate, and he’s justified being a first round draft pick, my feeling is that for a team to get the maximum return on him, the coach must tailor the offense around him, instead of wedging him in to another offense. Guys who come to mind that would work well with him are Chip Kelly, who incidentally was his coach in his first season at Oregon, and his current college coach, Mark Helfrich. Assuming Lovie Smith doesn’t survive past this year, if the Buccaneers are adamant on getting their Duck, they’ll need Helfrich in order to maximize his potential as a franchise quarterback.
Now, the title of the post also talks about Jameis Winston, the other first round potential signal caller in the draft. And for me, I think that Winston is the quarterback that teams should go after, and here’s why.
Winston is a pro style quarterback coming from a quarterback factory. Now granted, the quarterbacks that have come out of Florida State have been less than stellar, but these were guys who improved their draft stock, guys who otherwise would have gone in another round. Winston was pretty much hyped from the beginning, people knew that he was the genuine article, like Peyton Manning back in 1998, or Andrew Luck in 2012. While Winston is certainly no Manning or Luck, he’s definitely a certainty like them.
Winston also is a traditional passer with some running ability; while he’s no dual threat like Mariota, he can use his legs to get out of a situation, but not as a secondary weapon should his receivers be covered. Although his throwing motion is somewhat compromised due to the fact that he pitches also for the Seminoles baseball team, the idea is that it can be corrected.
Although Winston is the product of several… interesting off-the-field incidents, ranging from yelling **** her right in the ****** in the Student Union to stealing seafood from a Publix to alleged sexual assault of a woman, the idea is that kids do stupid things, and that Winston’s athletic talent is too hard to ignore. And while Winston has had a down year, especially given his interception totals mostly due to slower receivers, he has also never lost a game in college. Even if he lost to Oregon, unless he did something incredibly stupid or injured himself on a play, there’s no doubt that Winston would still be a first round prospect. The only way that Winston’s stock takes a major tumble is if he has a terrible scouting Combine.
The Buccaneers need a true franchise quarterback if they want to win in the future, and a gimmick from Oregon will never solve that problem. With proper development and discipline, Jameis Winston could actually develop into one of the premier signal callers in the NFL.
When Sandy Alderson, one of the prime proponents of building a team instead of buying, opted to sign outfielder Michael Cuddyer, a 36 year old outfielder who had receiver a qualifying offer from the Colorado Rockies, he not only forfeited his team’s right to select a first round draft pick in the 2015 draft, but he indicated that his four year rebuilding project known as the New York Mets was finally done. No more drafting high ceiling high school or collegiate bats, no more high ceiling pitchers, nope, that phase of the rebuild is over.
Anderson gave up a hefty price on a gamble. Cuddyer is coming off a season in which he missed 3/4 of the year due to injury. He’s also leaving a city which is known for being exceptionally friendly to hitters. And of course, there is the big one, he’s about to turn 36 years old.
Granted, Alderson has seemed to strike some metaphorical gold with older players, Bartolo Colon has served as a decent stopgap to hold Matt Harvey’s rotation spot while he recovered, not to mention his enjoyable trips to the batters box.
Similarly, Curtis Granderson, while still not exactly what he was in Detroit, rebounded somewhat in his first year in Queens, hitting 20 home runs.
The point here is that Alderson’s strategy may finally be coming to fruition.
For the first two years of the strategy, it was unclear what his motive was. Was he treading water while the Wilpon family twiddled their thumbs on dwindling finances due to the repercussions of the Madoff Scandal? Was he looking to rebuild a farm system that had been the repeated victim of bad trades during the previous regime?
The most obvious theory goes into Alderson’s draft strategy ever since he took over the team.
Think about his past four years at the MLB Draft. He started out by drafting high schoolers. Brandon Nimmo, Gavin Cecchini, and Dominic Smith are all guys who are decent position players but aren’t expected in the majors until 4 or 5 years later. Then all of a sudden, he pulls a shocker and drafts the consensus top collegiate hitter in baseball in Michael Conforto. Conforto, if developed properly, could be up as early as late 2015 or even by the start of the 2016 season. Coincidence that he became Alderson’s first collegiate first round draft choice after 3 years of prep talent?
Not only that but his trades all seemed to be more geared for 2015 as well. Zach Wheeler, while he was ready by mid-2013, is expected to be a solid #2 by the start of the season, complementing arguably the best contributions, if the last ones, of the Minaya era in Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom. Travis d’Arnaud, while struggle and injury prone, is looking like one of the top young catchers in baseball, and while he’s no Mike Piazza, he does bring to mind the Mets’ earlier days of getting results out of young catchers. Not to mention, Alderson inadvertently developed the happy problem of catcher depth when he drafted Kevin Plawecki, but I digress here.
In addition to Wheeler and d’Arnaud, there is Noah Syndergaard to consider. Granted, 2014 was a struggle for him, as he adjusted to playing in Las Vegas, otherwise known as Hell for pitchers. Syndergaard’s struggles don’t necessarily indicate that he isn’t ready, rather they indicate that he is a byproduct of the Vegas environment. Assuming he’s ready to pitch in 2015 for the Mets, he should be in a more hospitable setting, despite the ever changing shape of Citi Field.
Lastly of course is the Marlon Byrd trade that brought over a perfectly capable reliever in Vic Black and a future infield piece in Dilson Herrera. Vic Black has proven himself to be a solid anchor in the bullpen as a right-handed batter. Injuries and struggles aside, he could prove to be a long term part of a bullpen that is long removed from the days of Frank Francisco, Ramon Ramirez and Jon Rauch.
Herrera progressed through the system at an advanced pace, and at 20 years old, made his major league debut. He filled in quite admirably as the team’s second baseman while Daniel Murphy was injured, and showed promise as a potential replacement should Murphy be moved. Obviously he is still rough around the edges, but if you make news for being the first player to go from A-ball to the majors for the Mets, there’s obviously something special.
This, however is only one part of Alderson’s idea. We still haven’t figured out why he felt the need to sacrifice his draft pick for Cuddyer.
This is actually probably one of the more simple questions to answer, at least from a hypothetical perspective.
If you look at the team that Alderson has developed, you’d see that pitching wise, the Mets actually have one of the better up-and-coming staffs in baseball. Think Detroit, but younger and without the mega contracts. The rotation is built mostly out of homegrown pieces. Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee and possibly Syndergaard all make up a young and dynamic staff that could be together for years. The bullpen is also homegrown for the most part. Jenrry Mejia, Josh Edgin, Bobby Parnell, Jeurys Familia, Rafael Montero as well as the players they acquired through bargain deals and shrewd trades (Black) make up a staff that could run with the big boys of the National League.
Going off of that diatribe, does Alderson really need another pitcher in the draft? Would it make sense to draft a guy like Kyle Funkhouser from Louisville or Brett Lilek from Arizona State when the staff is already in place? Maybe, but in the future, it would create an overload, and while the adage is that there’s never too much pitching, there is too little money to lock up these pitchers long term.
Which moves me to the hitters. Now hitters are somewhat easier to develop, at least the college ones are. Assuming Alderson is done drafting high schoolers until the old team is disbanded through free agency and trades, who would he draft now? In the first mock draft, which was done way before Cuddyer signed with the Mets, I said that Dansby Swanson would be a solid fit. Now granted, the draft is all about BPA or GM tendencies, and while the idea here is that Alderson is a hitter guy, he’s already drafted a shortstop out of high school, and signed a promising young pelotero in Amed Rosario, who was considered a potential major superstar. Assuming Alderson had drafted Swanson, it would have sent a message to Cecchini and Rosario that they were pretty much dead weight or trade bait, and frankly, while there is potential with those two, it’s gonna be a long while before we see it, much like Nimmo and his breakout season this year, a full three seasons after he got drafted. So what happens? An outfielder is unnecessary. You have Juan Lagares in centerfield, Cuddyer in right field, and Granderson in left field, not to mention Nimmo almost ready for the Majors and Conforto soon to come after him. It makes no sense to go after another high school or college outfielder. DJ Stewart or Jahmai Jones would just serve as depth or trade bait as well. So with the outfield and middle infield situations in full capacity, we go to the corners and catching position. At third base, we have David Wright, who while he may be on the decline, is still a good five years away from being Derek Jeter-in-2013 levels of useless. And even then, there’s a solid backup for him in Matt Reynolds, the 2012 second rounder who has caught fire the past season. We’ve already covered catcher, so the next item is first base. Lucas Duda will be 29 when 2015 rolls around, giving him another 4 years of prime productivity. And even if he does decline, there’s still Dominic Smith. Granted Smith hit a bit of a second year wall, but he still was considered one of the top prep bats in the 2013 draft. And his arrival time likely coincides with the year that Duda would likely begin to decline. as he’s expected to be in the majors by late 2017 or early 2018. Getting a guy like Chris Shaw would be a waste, and a potential Ike Davis situation all over again.
So really, if there’s no needs to draft in 2015, then Alderson picked the right time to lose his pick. Assuming he has further plans to patch up holes with big league players, we can assume that the rebuild is finally over for the Mets. Cuddyer is the perfect temporary solution to hold the fort in the outfield while Nimmo finishes his minor league time, and whomever is at shortstop will likely leave an impression for whomever is next in line. The point here is that the Alderson rebuild may finally be over, allowing the Mets to be the top team in New York while the Yankees look into a rebuild.